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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple pattern. It commonly serves as a kind of apology. Sorry we misjudged your squad in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who engineered the largest turnaround receives the prize. In practice, it creates an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring excellent leadership or simply the most shocking shock.

Yet the latest race is distinctly different. The group of contenders is unusually talented. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning conference champions fading and recent also-rans rising in unison. In an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in this wild and entertaining year, he's up against several other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the ideal vote should be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's consistent excellence. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system instead of freelancing. It is an attack designed solely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that creates wide receiver receivers everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when openings haven't been there, he's been able to conjure big plays from broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually each bet – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has worked. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the building with the kind of pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a ordinary season, Johnson would be the runaway choice. But the current isn't a normal campaign!

Where his case comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term success. But he falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has engineered a dramatic resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has mastered the off-field aspects, which was not a guarantee after his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff mix of youth and experience, Coen hired newbies. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a risk that the season would go off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the team stumbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting consistent ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has fallen away after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still